from Value in Health at https://bit.ly/3lZ8Z2K on October 18, 2020 at 02:48PM
Available online 17 October 2020
Economic Benefits of Immunization for 10 Pathogens in 94 Low- and Middle-Income Countries From 2011 to 2030 Using Cost-of-Illness and Value-of-Statistical-Life Approaches
This study expands on previous analyses of economic benefits from vaccines from 73 to 94 countries and extends the time horizon to include the future decade, 2021 to 2030.
We updated the methods, assumptions, and data used for the cost-of-illness approach and applied a newly standardized methodological approach for estimating value of statistical life benefits, with scenario analysis, using value of statistical life-year to adjust for the age of the impacted population.
These results align with estimates produced for a recent return-on-investment analysis and methods used for goal setting in Gavi’s strategic investment period.
Vaccination has prevented millions of deaths and cases of disease in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). During the Decade of Vaccines (2011-2020), international organizations, including the World Health Organization and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, focused on new vaccine introduction and expanded coverage of existing vaccines. As Gavi, other organizations, and country governments look to the future, we aimed to estimate the economic benefits of immunization programs made from 2011 to 2020 and potential gains in the future decade.
We used estimates of cases and deaths averted by vaccines against 10 pathogens in 94 LMICs to estimate the economic value of immunization. We applied 3 approaches—cost of illness averted (COI), value of statistical life (VSL), and value of statistical life-year (VSLY)—to estimate observable and unobservable economic benefits between 2011 and 2030.
From 2011 to 2030, immunization would avert $1510.4 billion ($674.3-$2643.2 billion) (2018 USD) in costs of illness in the 94 modeled countries, compared with the counterfactual of no vaccination. Using the VSL approach, immunization would generate $3436.7 billion ($1615.8-$5657.2 billion) in benefits. Applying the VSLY approach, $5662.7 billion ($2547.2-$9719.4) in benefits would be generated.
Vaccination has generated significant economic benefits in LMICs in the past decade. To reach predicted levels of economic benefits, countries and international donor organizations need to meet coverage projections outlined in the Gavi Operational Forecast. Estimates generated using the COI, VSL, or VSLY approach may be strategically used by donor agencies, decision makers, and advocates to inform investment cases and advocacy campaigns.
cost of illness
© 2020 ISPOR-The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research. Published by Elsevier Inc.